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Ludicrously low win rate
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theunholymagnus
#1 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 6:58:31 AM(UTC)
Rank: Newbie

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Posts: 3
I tried using my fairly basic Paladin deck on casual mode to grind out a quest, left it out overnight, and when I woke up, the deck had a winrate of 3, yes 3% (2w/29l).
When I played a few games myself, I won 4 in a row without too much trouble, though I suppose those were at a lower level of play.
I was using the DeckRules_Default rules, which have worked well before, but somehow now has no synergy with the same deck.
Anyone have any idea what went tits up this time?

Decklist:
2x Avenge
1x Noble sacrifice
2xZombie chow
1xAcidic Swamp Oooze
1xArgen protector
2x Knife Juggler
1xDivine favor
1xMuster for battle
1xAldor Peacekeeper
2xShattered Sun Cleric
1xSpider Tank
2xTruesilver Champion
2xBlessing of Kings
2xConcecration
2xKeeper of Uldaman
2xMurloc Knight
1xMukla's champion
1xTuskarr Jouster
1xSylvanas Windrunner
1xDr.Boom
1xKel'Thuzad
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contagious86
#2 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 7:11:59 AM(UTC)

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A few points to consider:

- Have you seen anyone else having a higher win-rate with this deck (at night)?

- Playing at night from my own experience is always harder and win-rates drop. There are fewer people playing but they are hardcore.

- Default settings might not be enough to have a good win-rate with a specific deck. The AI won't play your deck to its full potential. That's why there are mulligan and combo files that people write in order to assist the AI. (Using silvefish AI)

- Depending on your previous results in casual mode, your "elo" might be quite high. So using a bot to farm wins there puts you at a disadvantage since you will meet quite good players that the AI won't be able to handle.
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theunholymagnus
#3 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 7:43:13 AM(UTC)
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I have run the exact same setting multiple times over the past 4 months (only when I have a pally quest) and have gotten 40-60% win rates. This was way different.
Like I said, unless the AI has had some overhauls with the last patch, this isn't the issue.
Again, this has worked pretty well before. This is the first time I have had a rate at this level.
My "elo" should have tanked as I lost again and again, so this shouldn't be the issue. It never started winning again, judging by the logs.
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contagious86
#4 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 7:49:45 AM(UTC)

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Maybe that was just a really unlucky night then. Try again and if this keeps happening while previously you had a 40-60% win-rate, we might be able to provide better answers.

Regarding your "elo", yes it will drop if you keep losing. Depending on your previous elo 31 games might not be enough.

Also note that a losing streak can happen even if you are not using a bot, I have lost 20 games in a row one day. There are many things to consider: "day of the week", "end of the month", "back luck" etc. Its a game based on probabilities and statistics, nothing is certain. By having a good deck and playing smart you just increase your probability of winning, although you may lose.
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theunholymagnus
#5 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 8:07:35 AM(UTC)
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I'll try again tonight and report back. Just seemed like an extremely large statistical anomaly.
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SickB
#6 Posted : Wednesday, March 23, 2016 11:38:10 AM(UTC)
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i noticed that too.

My bot wins nothing anymore no matter what deck with what settings, _combo and _mulligan.
He also likes to rope until he loses but i haven´t changed anything.

This bot played rank 5 before for me and now he can´t get away from 20
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franner
#7 Posted : Wednesday, March 23, 2016 10:21:50 PM(UTC)

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If you run the same deck for a very long time and the deck suddenly loose a lot, it could be due to meta change as well or playing against decks that counters your deck (certain decks have a very high winrate against other decks before drawing any cards, some match ups are very hard to begin with and require almost perfect draw and luck).
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